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2024-12-13 05:28:07

We used to tell you that we should look at the expectation of news stimulus together with exchange rate, national debt and bulk. From our point of view, the biggest problem in the A-share market lies in the mood. Compared with other markets, professional investors will be relatively calm. Let's take a look at Friday's composition about the biggest interest rate cut in ten years, right? Let's look at the exchange rate, national debt and commodities, which are definitely devalued. When the A-share market moves, it is accelerating the appreciation range. Look at 30 bonds and 10 bonds. Theoretically, the interest rate is reduced, and the interest rate is also reversed. Let's look at commodities. The sharp differences fell below 0.5 of Fibonacci's retracement after the morning closing, and even hit a new low at night. Several representative threads and so on can almost be said to have gone down after a while, that is, the attitude of big money is an emotion. On the other hand, A shares resisted all day, so you said that the national team did not intervene?Then the difference of this bull market is that it is no longer resonated by external factors, or internal and external factors. This round of our excess stock savings has already seen its power after 924, which is only slightly loose.On the other hand, we look at the "dual track system" separately from the currency. Recently, there is a message that I don't know if you have paid attention to it, that is, the place.


First, the economic transformation. Let's talk about the debt. In the past, our big bull markets all relied on the mapping of overseas currency issuance. As we said before, whether it was 05 or 15, it was essentially a small basin with a lot of water. The currency overflow caused by the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves flooded into the stock market, and a crazy bull came quickly, including our institutional blue-chip bull in 1718. In essence, it was the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves or the superposition of high reserves exceeding m2. Here is a message that everyone needs to pay attention to.On Friday afternoon, I don't know if everyone went in to rush to play positions. In fact, for institutions, the positive line on Friday is actually not linked. Why do you say that?Let's talk about the plate again. Let's try to do certainty, look for certainty logic, and make plans at the end of this year's last point. For example, last week we said that institutions are very optimistic about tourism. In fact, everyone is familiar with the stimulation of tourism in winter. There is nothing new about an Asian Winter Games, which corresponds to a Dalian Shengya and a Changbai Mountain. These are all things stimulated by winning numbers's policies. Earlier, we told you that one of them is a Zhuang stock. Just take a research report from the seller's research institute before posting last week. Look at this week, the amount is at a new high. You said that these managers will definitely take it, but it will become a relay. If you get out before the chips are loose, your net worth will accelerate to a new high. After all, the optimization mechanism of the last elimination system is still terrible for the iron rice bowl. From a macro perspective, it is definitely an opportunity for local financial control platform companies to be involved in debt conversion in the next six months, and it will take half a year at the earliest to solve the liquidity. We will talk about it in detail later. From the perspective of the whole transformation cycle, what quantum information does the whole industrial chain of robot low-altitude ai semiconductors include, and so on? Anyone who has some fundamentals will go crazy in the slow cattle. The shortest term is the upcoming meeting and annual report. Do you want new infrastructure? Do you want certainty in the annual report? Last year, the optical module pcb was highly deterministic. What is the high certainty this year? Look at the contract liabilities. There is a group with high contract liabilities. As long as the first company discloses the compound expectation, it will be fulfilled. Combined with the new infrastructure, there may be a sustained market. You can look for it. The general direction is in the direction of resonance between wind power parts and quadruped robots. There are too few stocks and the capacity is not large, so we will not order it.


Finally, let's talk about value investment. You can read a book called "Smart Investor". There is almost no value investment at this time. The so-called core assets you eat are his growth attributes, while the value itself puts forward that Graham, the teacher of investor Buffett, was born in a big era and was originally a manufacturing industry. It is very simple how much your computer room equipment is worth. As long as your stock is lower than this price, there is a margin of safety. This is the meaning of value investment itself, and the current company value is very high. I don't know who cared about dpi in the primary market in 15 years. I only care about the dream value, and why a large number of institutions like to buy Maotai, because it is the company with the simplest financial statement in the whole A-share market (except the one that runs scallops), and its price-earnings ratio, spread, poor growth rate and valuation center are all good ways to evaluate, including some ETFs that have fallen into transformers.Concentrate on doing big things while deploying the market. When the normal operation of the economy is in the inflation range, the market has higher strength and efficiency in resource allocation, then the market has the final say. When it is in the shrinking range, the market deployment fails, such as our current long-term debt, so it is driven by policies. We must know that next year is the last year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan to solve the debt. We must know the buyout reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan some time ago, unlessDon't think that shipping is a bad word. If you don't speed up the shipment, you can't follow the trend without pulling the board. You have worked hard for one year, waiting for the event-driven east wind, and the fire will burn quickly. This is the enjoyment of "tulip bubble"

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